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Thread: Descent: Journeys in the Dark (second edition):: General:: The probability of damage and surges, all in a few simple bar graphs

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by Leon Depisa

Hi all!

So I was playing Descent with my friends and one of my friend's dad, and whenever we realized how much damage we could do on a "perfect turn," I would start to think what the probability is of getting such a turn. I started with just the raw math, but it got very complicated and messy, so I made a program that simulated all the possible rolls of the dice and then returned the number of rolls that were above a certain value.

It was much easier after I realized there are two rules governing all dice rolls (for attacks):

1. There must always be exactly 1 blue die (I assume for the chance of missing)
2. There will always be 2 or 3 dice rolled.

That limits the possible number of rolls down to 5:
1. Blue Yellow
2. Blue Red
3. Blue Yellow Yellow
4. Blue Yellow Red
5. Blue Red Red

Anyways, after crunching the numbers and putting the data into Numbers '09, here's what came out. I hope this is useful to all the players and overlord alike. Enjoy and share!

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/80560656/Descent%20Roll%20Cheat%20S...

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